Should Egypt Brace Itself for Islamist Terror?

While we continue the pinhead-dance whether ousting of Egypt first freely elected Islamist president Mohammed Morsi was a coup d’état, or, as most Egyptian see it,  the army forced carrying the will of the majority to salvage their revolution, situation on the ground deteriorated fast. Meanwhile British media is full pundits – hardly any of them have experience on the ground, or wheeling Islamists and non-Egyptian Hamas London members ( although misleadingly labelled to hide their identity) warning of Egypt sliding into civil war. While it is understandable that Qatar owned al-Jazeera might have its own agenda for deliberately using  the evocative term’ civil war’, it is hard to understand why ITN and BBC join this orgy of ignorance and use the term. Egypt demographic realities just doesn’t lend any credit to such foolish prediction.

What opened the flood gates to these ignorant predictions was the Monday bloody clashes leaving 51 dead civilians and four times as many inured, while also claiming four lives among army and police with four dozen injuries. It was an unprecedented tragedy.

While Muslim Brothers and secularist continue to exchange spin-salvos of who to blame, the truth might never be known. Acting president Chief Justice Adly Mansour ordered a judicial inquiry. From history of such inquires, and thanks to greedy lawyers on high daily rate, it would take years to complete and the actual truth might never be known,

From police and army videos, and tweets by residents living in tower-blocks overlooking the square,  anti-riot police fired tear-gas at Muslim Brothers protestors who surged forward after dawn prayer, which the police seems to have not expected.

Shots heard, allegedly by  MB men ( Doctors treating injured army soldiers and policemen say they removed shot-gun pellets from the injured) near-bye army soldiers with panicking fingers on triggers responded resulting in 51 deaths and injuries. Conflicting weets from activists near the scene, on how violence started inflamed an already combustible situation. It became clearer that MB tried to put a spin suggesting police attacked them while praying, while presenting no evidence especially with everyone carrying a video capable mobile phones that could have easily recorded or photographed attack on Mosque during prayer; it is also implausible that Muslim policemen would dare to break such social taboo as to attack a mosque during prayer.

Rabbah al-Adawaih mosque square a stone throw from the Republican Guard officers Club where MB believe Mr Morsi is being kept their under house arrest conditions. A group of armed MB tried to attack the club, the police spokesman said in a press conference Monday, blaming MB for the violence.  A police helicopter video showed MB men  throwing petrol bombs from roof top. Another police video showed MB men  taking aim and firing weapons at police.

Evidently incompetent Cairo police were caught unprepared. Armies don’t train their soldiers for crowd control or how to deal with street protest, many said on Monday, this is a police job. The MB, have a long history of violence – although their supporter in the media claim otherwise the MB never issued a short clear direct statement denouncing violence or revising their long-standing theocratic justification off their 1930 -1950s terror campaign of bombing cinemas, theatres and hotels and assassinating judges and politicians-. Their supreme guide Mohammd Badie, and other leaders inflammatory speeches and calls for Jihad  ( Muslim word for crusade ) last Friday outside the same mosque  prompted  Islamists mob  to burn cars, destroy property and attack secular opponents leaving 12 people dead and 321 injured in Cairo and Alexandria, while MB affiliated terrorists attacked El-Arish airport killing five unarmed guards and raised al-Qaeda flags in Northern Sinai. Hence violence by MB  should have been anticipated and police should have been on full alert. Police chiefs  failed to provide officers in the area with metal detectors to make sure no weapons or fire arms find their way to the mosque which has been under Muslim Brothers occupation since Friday 28 June when the protest started. Police should have been prepared by water-cannons and more crowd-control methods if needed. Not ideal but preferable to death and injury.

While acting president Chief Justice Mansour issued the constitutional part of the road map ( constitution redraft committee to work within two weeks, referendum on it in four months, elections for parliament and president next February) MB called for an uprising using an alien ( non-Egyptian) word intifada; but it didn’t materialise, so far, as less pro-Morsi protesters in the square than it was at the weekend.  The call prompted some idiotic predictions of civil war Syria style from American and some British correspondents.

Unlike Iraq or Syria with their ethnic mosaic,  Egypt demographic realities provide little, if any, conditions that would generate  a civil war. Egyptians, regardless of faith  are largely one ethnic group, Nioltic Egyptians, no clans  and don’t geographically group by faiths in different geographical areas. On the contrary, urban areas ( where over two thirds of population live) are Mediterranean style blocks of flats with people of different faith share. The country side economic patterns of small holding or crop-sharing enforced sharing regarding of faith for thousands of years. The five percent of ethnically Arab population living in Sinai or eastern desert have a different way of life that they never cared who ruled in Cairo.     . Mb call for intefada ( non Egyptian word first used by Palestinians for their uprising against Israeli occupation ) could usher sporadic  terrorist attacks by sleeper cells made of few hundred of Hamas activists who were given Egyptian ID cards by Morsi regime, intelligence sources claim after.  MB leader Mohammed el-Beltagi said Monday that terror attacks against Egyptian government buildings in Sinai “could stop in one hour if Morsi is reinstated”, is taken seriously by Egyptian security.  The next step expected is Egyptian army blowing up most of the smuggling tunnels between Gaza and Sinai where pro MB terrorist are carrying various terror attacks.

In the 1990s Muslim Brothers affiliated groups or born out of MBs works like Gamaat Islamiyah , Takfeer wal-Higrah,r Nagoon min al-Nar, or Islamic jihad carried out series of terror attacks against Tourist sites, the worst was Luxor massacre killing 632 people ( 58 tourists) attacks on hotels, assonating artists and writers; but at the end a brutal campaign by Mubarak police managed to contain them. The regime made an historic error when tried to appear more Islamist in state media opening it to evangelists resulting in Islamisation by stealth. Given the mood this time and with spread of many independents  and commercial media oulet, it is likelt to be the reverse. The country can take a bit of some MB terrorism , as an Egyptian diplomat says, but this would ensure Muslim Brorther would never be able to get any more than single figure in any poll ( latest Poll by American Arab institute found their support under 10% down from 22% six months ago and over 55% a year ago).

The background to how anti Morsi movement gathered momentum was that a  group of younger generation activists knowm as tamrud  (rebellion) emulated the 1919 nationalist revolution, by starting  a campaign in April collecting signatures collecting signatures on printed petitions calling for  president Motrsi’s  resignation, and holding fresh new  presidential elections as people got disillusioned with an autocracy in the process of islamisation of all facets of their lives, turning quickly into a totalitarian fascist theocracy. By June 25th they collected 22 Million signatures ( two and half times those voted for Morsi). Tamrud and another dozen of political parties called for nationwide marches to overthrow Morsi on June 30, but was ove taken by simultaneous protest of millions on June 28, with initiatives taken out of the hands of politicians by street momentum.

The army had little choice but to act, as Tony Blair went round media studios say so. It was a case of damned if they acted and damned if they didn’t . The generals by default are not democrats, or have patience or training for political intricacies. They flew in their helicopters observing what they estimated to be 18 millions on afternoon of  30 June, (  secularists say 35 millions, and impendent media put it somewhere in between.) it wasn’t just question of siding with the majority of 15:1 against Mors, but the army chiefs faced a real dilemma. They do not have the manpower or training for mass crowd control on large scale, and this time it was five to seven fold the numbers of demonstrators who toppled Mubarak 30 months eralier . What would any army do in this situation? Asked Blair. They had to stop the country sliding inti unpredictable anarchy.

Intelligence reports were accurate that Muslim broths secrete organisation have arms and many ready to use them as shown on Monday morning confrontation.

The army couldn’t wait with two sides come face to face  the streets. Army chief,  Gen abdul-Fatah al-Sisi ( a devout Muslim  handpicked by Morsi last November and thought to be Muslim Brothers sympathiser), in three separate meetings pleaded with Morsi to share power with all political parties in broad coalition. ( same advice given to him by  his backer the American ambassador Anne Patterson – )  He refused encouraged by Muslim Brothers hardliners radical Islamist group Hamas in Gaza against advice from MB international organisation to make concessions in Egypt in order to keep regional gains ( getting US & EU to supply arms to Syria Rebels who are predominantly of MB affiliate, control of Tunisia, Libya and, Gaza). The army gave 48 hours ultimatum to ALL political trends and parties to come up with a power-sharing plan called roadmap out of the crisis. They all participated including ultra-orthodox Islamises like salafies and heads of Muslim Church ( al-Azhar)  & Christian church ( al-Morqusiyah) , while MB refused. The power-sharing roadmap  doesn’t stop Morsi or MBs from running for coming elections . There is no role for army in political life in the plan. There was  no martial law declared ( which remained in effect since Col Nasser days until Mubarak’s overthrow in 2011). They went by the constitution making the Supreme Constitutional Court, the interim ruling body until election is held.

The MB rejection of  Chief Justice Mansour election timetable, can only be understood as temporary tactics in their attempt to create tension hoping for American intervention to bed the will of the army. This is dangerous calculation as would further alienate them form the voters and reduce their ability to get enough seats in the next parliament to be of any effect.